| 簡介：◎ step back 是什麼意思？ ◎「乘著勢頭」英語怎麼說？ ◎「人口紅利」是什麼？ Paying Dividends: East Asian Economies Facing Uphill Population Struggle When acclaimed director Zhang Yimou was fined 7.4-million-yuan for violating China's one-child policy in January, the issue of China's demographics was back in the headlines. Late last year, the PRC government announced that it was stepping back from the controversial policy, with the province Zhejiang becoming the first to relax the regulations in January. The capital Beijing and the provinces of Hubei and Guangxi are set to follow this month. Is this an admission of a monumental blunder in population planning? The government insists not; everything is under control. That, it appears, has been the problem. By enacting the policy in 1979, China irrevocably altered the age and gender balance. In the 1980s, China's working-age population soared, creating a demographic dividend where a large workforce to small dependent ratio exists. U.N. statistics show China's growth from 53 to 75 percent in the key labor-age demographic (15-64 years old) was at least 10 percent higher than in developed countries.
However, it was long predicted that the explosive short-term boost to productivity would culminate in an aging population and fewer people to look after them. At eight working-age people per retiree, China's old-age support ratio remains two-and-a-half times the figure for Japan and Germany. Yet this has fallen from a high of 14:1. Even if China scraps the one-child policy wholesale, the workforce will continue to shrink for generations.
人口紅利——東亞經濟體面臨的低出生率困境 當知名導演張藝謀在一月因違反中國一胎化政策而遭罰款 740 萬人民幣時，中國的人口議題再度登上頭條。去年年底，中國政府宣布將廢止這項爭議性政策，浙江省在一月成為首個鬆綁此規定的省份，首都北京以及湖北省和廣西省預計本月陸續跟進。
這是否承認人口規畫政策出了重大錯誤？中國政府堅稱並非如此；一切都在掌握之中。人口規畫似乎一直是個問題。在一九七九年頒布該政策後，中國不可挽回地改變了年齡和性別平衡。一九八○年代時，中國的勞動年齡人口暴增，創造人口紅利，也就是勞動力高、受扶養人口比率低。聯合國的數據顯示中國關鍵勞動年齡人口（15至 64 歲）從 53% 到 75% 的漲幅，至少比已開發國家高出了 10%。
不過，很久前就有人預測，這種爆發性的短期產能增長會以人口老化和照顧者人數不足告終。每八名勞動人口必須照顧一名退休人員，中國的的老年人口支持比仍是日本和德國的 2.5 倍。但這是從曾高達 14:1 的比率下滑的結果。即使中國全面廢除一胎化政策，其勞動力也將在接下來幾個世代繼續縮減。
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即將離職的萊諾詢問主管馬蒂妲是否能幫他寫封求職推薦信。
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