譯/莊蕙嘉
昂貴核武競賽可能再次上演
After the recent death of the treaty covering intermediate-range missiles, a new arms race appears to be taking shape, drawing in more players, more money and more weapons at a time of increased global instability and anxiety about nuclear proliferation.
節制中程飛彈的條約日前告終，一場新的武器競賽似乎正在成形，於此全球不穩定與世人對核擴散的焦慮皆在加深之際，吸引著更多參賽者、金錢及武器投入。
The arms control architecture of the Cold War, involving tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, was laboriously designed over years of hard-fought negotiations between two superpowers — the United States and the Soviet Union. The elaborate treaties helped keep the world from nuclear annihilation.
冷戰時期的武器管制架構涵蓋數萬件核武，是兩大超強美國和蘇聯歷經多年艱辛談判規畫而成。這些精心設計的條約使世界得以免於核子毀滅。
Today, those treaties are being abandoned by the United States and Russia just as new strategic competitors not covered by the Cold War accords — like China, North Korea and Iran — are asserting themselves as regional powers and challenging U.S. hegemony.
今日，這些條約被美國和俄羅斯捨棄，而此際未受這些冷戰條約規範的新興戰略競爭者，例如中國、北韓和伊朗，正在宣示它們的區域強權地位，並挑戰美國的霸權。
The dismantling of "arms control," a Cold War mantra, is now heightening the risks of a new era when nuclear powers like India and Pakistan are clashing over Kashmir, and when nuclear Israel feels threatened by Iran, North Korea is testing new missiles, and other countries like Saudi Arabia are thought to have access to nuclear weapons or be capable of building them.
「武器管制」這冷戰時期重要訴求的瓦解，如今正使新時代的風險升高，當下印度和巴基斯坦兩核武國正因喀什米爾問題而起衝突，擁有核武的以色列感覺受到伊朗威脅，北韓測試新飛彈，沙烏地阿拉伯等另一些國家據推測可取得核武，或有能力製造核武。
The consequence, experts say, is likely to be a more dangerous and unstable environment, even in the near term, that could precipitate unwanted conflicts and demand vast new military spending among the world's biggest powers, including the United States.
專家說，結果很可能會出現一個更危險且更不穩定的環境，甚至就在近期內，使得我們不樂見的衝突因而發生，包括美國在內的世界最大強權大幅增加軍事支出。
"If there's not nuclear disarmament, there will be proliferation," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear analyst and president of the Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation. "If big powers race to build up their arsenals, smaller powers will follow."
全球安全事務基金會「犁頭基金」總裁兼核武分析家奇林喬內說：「如果不裁減核武，它就會擴散。如果大國競相增加核武儲備，小國就會跟進。」
"As long as the big boys cling to their toys, others will want them," he added, quoting the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei.
「只要大男孩緊抓著玩具不放，其他人就會想要。」他引用國際原子能總署前秘書長艾爾巴拉岱的話補充道。
Not only are the big boys clinging to them, there are more big boys now, and they want more toys.
不只是這些大男孩緊抓不放，現在大男孩更多了，他們要更多玩具。
For Washington, China is seen as a rising strategic rival and competitor. And the United States is moving to increase its military presence and missile deployments in Asia, as a deterrent against a more aggressive Beijing, which has vastly expanded and modernized its stock of medium-range missiles that can hit U.S. ships, as well as Taiwan.
華府視中國為新興的戰略對手及競爭者。美國正採取行動增加在亞洲的軍事活動和飛彈部署，作為對更具侵略性的北京當局的威嚇，北京已大舉增加並更新其中程飛彈，可用以攻擊美國船艦及台灣。
At the same time, President Donald Trump's national security adviser, John R. Bolton, has talked about letting the last strategic-arms control treaty, New START, die in February 2021, without extending it another five years, as foreseen in the accord, which was signed under President Barack Obama.
同時，美國總統川普的國家安全顧問波頓曾提到，要讓「新戰略武器裁減條約」在2021年2月終止，不會依條約記載的延展五年，這項條約簽署於歐巴馬總統任內。
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