2014年12月11日 星期四

The Frightening Side Of Intelligent Robots╱人工智慧失控後果可怕


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2014/12/12 第51期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 The Frightening Side Of Intelligent Robots╱人工智慧失控後果可怕
Time for Uber to Grow Up, Fast╱優步需要改變 事不宜遲
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The Frightening Side Of Intelligent Robots╱人工智慧失控後果可怕
By NICK BILTON╱李京倫譯
Ebola gives me nightmares. Bird flu and SARS scare me. But what terrifies me is artificial intelligence. The first three, with enough resources, humans could stop. The last, which humans are creating, could become unstoppable.

伊波拉病毒讓我做惡夢,禽流感和嚴重急性呼吸道症候群(SARS)讓我怕怕,而讓我嚇得要命的卻是人工智慧。前三種,人類只要有足夠資源就能阻止;最後一種,人類正在研發,卻可能變得無法遏制。

Consider what artificial intelligence is. Grab an iPhone and ask Siri about the weather or stocks. Her answers are artificially intelligent. These artificially intelligent machines are cute now, but as they are given more power , the y may not take long to spiral out of control.

看看什麼是人工智慧。拿起iPhone,問個人助理軟體Siri天氣或股市如何,它的答案就是人工智慧。目前這些人工智慧機器都都算可愛,不過,當機器被賦予更多力量時,也許不多久就會失控。

In the beginning, the glitches will be small but eventful. Maybe a rogue computer momentarily derails the stock market . Or a driverless car freezes on the highway because a software update goes awry.

剛開始,人工智慧故障的規模小但影響大,也許一台不安分的電腦讓股市暫時脫序,或者一輛自動駕駛車因軟體更新出錯而停在公路上。

But the upheavals can escalate quickly . Imagine how a medical robot, programmed to rid cancer, could conclude that the best way to obliterate cancer is to exterminate humans who are genetically prone to the disease.

剛開始,人工智慧故障的規模小但影響大,也許一台不安分的電腦讓股市暫時脫序,或者一輛自動駕駛車因軟體更新出錯而停在公路上。

Nick Bostrom, author of the book "Superintelligence," lays out some doomsday settings. One envisions self-replicating nanobots, which are microscopic robots designed to make copies of themselves. These bots could fight diseases in the human body or eat radioactive material . But, Mr. Bostrom says, a "person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause the extinction of intelligent life on Earth."

「超級人工智慧」一書作者薄思純描繪了一些末日情景,其中一種是能夠自我複製的奈米機器人,這是非常微小的機器人,設計宗旨就是自我複製。這些機器人可在人體內跟疾病作戰,或吃掉輻射物質,不過薄思純說,「掌握這種技術卻心懷不軌的人,可能讓地球上的智慧生命滅亡。」

Artificial-intelligence proponents argue that programmers are going to build safeguards. But didn't it take nearly a half-century for programmers to stop computers from crashing every time you used them?

世上最聰明的人之一霍金曾寫道,人工智慧成功「將是人類史上最重大的事件,不幸的是,可能也是最後一個事件。」

Stephen Hawking, one of the smartest people on earth, wrote that successful A. I. "would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last."

雖然人工智慧支持者主張,程式設計師會預做防護,不過,程式設計師不是花了將近半世紀,才讓電腦不會在你每次使用時都當機?

One fear is that we are starting to create machines that can make decisions , but these machines don't have morality and likely never will. A more-distant fear is that once we build systems that are as intelligent as humans, the y will be able to build smarter machines, often referred to as superintelligence. That, experts say, is when things could really spiral out of control . We can't build safeguards into something that we haven't built ourselves.

令人擔心的一件事是,我們已開始創造能做決定的機器,這些機器卻沒有道德感,而且大概永遠不會有。往遠處想,令人害怕的是,一旦我們設計的系統跟人類一樣聰明,系統就能自行設計更聰明的機器,通常稱為「超級人工智慧」。專家說,那就是局面真正失控的時候。我們沒法為不是我們造出來的東西預做防護。

"We humans steer the future not because we're the strongest beings on the planet, or the fastest, but because we are the smartest," said James Barrat, author of "Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era." "So when there is something smarter than us on the planet, it will rule over us on the planet."

「我們最後的發明:人工智慧與人類時代的終結」一書作者巴拉特說:「我們人類能主導未來走向,不是因為我們是地球上最強壯或動作最快的物種,而是因為我們最聰明,所以,如果地球上有某種東西比我們聰明,它就會統治我們。」

What makes it harder to comprehend is that we don't know what superintelligent machines will look or act like. " Artificial intelligence won't be like us," Mr. Barrat said, "but it will be the ultimate intellectual version of us."

讓這種恐懼更難理解的是,我們並不知道超級人工智慧機器長得怎樣、如何行動。巴拉特說:「人工智慧不會像我們,但會是我們最聰明的版本。」

Perhaps the scariest setting is how these technologies will be used by the military. Bonnie Docherty, a lecturer at Harvard University and a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, said that the race to build autonomous weapons with artificial intelligence — already underway — is reminiscent of the early days of the race to build nuclear weapons, and that treaties should be put in place before machines are killing people on the battlefield. Machines that have no morality or mortality, she said, " should not be given power to kill."

也許最可怕的情景是,這種技術會被軍方使用。哈佛大學講師、「人權觀察」組織高級研究員邦妮.杜徹提說,研發人工智慧自動武器的競賽已經展開,讓人聯想到核武研發競賽早期,相關的限制條約應該在機器上戰場殺人前生效。她說,機器既沒有道德感也不會死,「不該握有殺人的力量。」

So how do we ensure that all these doomsday situations don't come to fruition? In some instances, we likely won't be able to stop them. But we can hinder some of the potential chaos by following the lead of Google. This year when the search-engine giant acquired DeepMind, a n artificial intelligence company based in London, the two put together an artificial intelligence safety and ethics board that aims to ensure these technologies are developed safely.

那我們該如何確保這些末日情景不會發生?在某些情況下,我們可能沒法阻止,不過我們可以效法搜尋引擎巨頭谷歌,防止某些潛在亂局上演。谷歌今年收購總部在倫敦的人工智慧公司DeepMind,二者共組「人工智慧安全與道德委員會」,確保這種技術朝安全的方向研發。

Demis Hassabis, founder of DeepMind, said that anyone building artificial intelligence should do the same thing. "They should definitely be thinking about the ethical consequences of what they do," Dr. Hassabis said. "Way ahead of time."

DeepMind創辦人哈薩畢斯博士說,凡是研發人工智慧的人都該這麼做,「他們理當想到自己所作所為的道德後果,而且要早早就想到。」

 
Time for Uber to Grow Up, Fast╱優步需要改變 事不宜遲
By FARHAD MANJOO╱莊蕙嘉譯
In just four years , Uber has ignited a new global ride-sharing industry with the promise of transforming urban transportation and helping many people get by without owning cars.

僅僅4年,優步靠著要扭轉都市交通,並幫助無車民眾移動的承諾,在全球創造出共乘的新興產業。

But now the hot start-up is facing its toughest challenge yet — taming its most offensive impulses before its aggressive culture begins to turn off investors, employees and customers .

但現在,這家熱門的新創公司正面臨迄今最大的挑戰:在它主動出擊式公司文化嚇跑投資人、員工和顧客之前,放慢極具侵犯性的步調。

The recent revelation, reported by BuzzFeed, that an executive suggested investigating the private lives of journalists who criticize Uber was only the latest unflattering news about the company's tactics .

BuzzFeed網站最近在報導中揭露,優步一名主管建議調查撰文批評優步的數名記者的私生活,而這只是這家公司近來諸多不討喜的策略之一。

Uber has grown into one of the most valuable start-ups in Silicon Valley, with outposts around the world. It has raised about $1.5 billion and is valued at more than $17 billion, with talk of a public offering.

優步已成長為矽谷最有價值的新創公司之一,在全球各地皆有據點。它已募資約15億美元,市值超過170億美元,據傳將公開上市。

Uber's hard-charging culture may be characteristic of startups , but fostering such a culture can quickly become a losing proposition .

優步的強硬出擊式文化也許是新創企業的一個特色,但鼓勵這種文化,可能很快就會將企業導向失敗之途。

"The more stories that come out about Uber behaving badly — whether it's about the way it competes with rivals or the fact that an executive discussed looking into journalists — the risk is that it starts to become the main story about the company, rather than the great service it provides or its low prices," said Jan Dawson, an industry analyst.

產業分析師道森說:「關於優步的負面傳聞越來越多--不論是它如何和對手競爭,或是一名主管討論要挖記者底細--風險是,外界對這家公司的主要描述開始變成這些傳聞,而不是它提供的優質服務或低廉的價格。」

Travis Kalanick, Uber's chief executive, made an apologetic series of posts on Twitter regarding the executive, Emil Michael, who made the comments about journalists. Mr. Michael's future with the company was not mentioned.

優步主管麥可表示要調查記者底細一事,執行長卡蘭尼克已在推特發表一連串貼文道歉。麥可在這家公司的前途則未被提及。

Technology companies live and die by culture; ultimate success or failure is determined less by technological prowess than by the values and behavior of people who work there.

科技公司因文化而生,也因文化而亡。最終的成敗取決於公司員工的價值觀和行為,而非科技上的高超與否。

This may be particularly true for Uber : It owns no cars, its drivers are at-will contractors who can easily switch to rival services, and its customers are just one tap away from some other service.

這個論點對優步而言格外真確。它沒有車輛,駕駛出於自願而簽約,隨時能轉換到對手公司;且客戶只要按個鍵,就能改用其他業者的服務。

Uber has recently been dogged by accusations of various sorts. Last New Year's Eve, a driver hit an immigrant family in San Francisco, killing a 6-year-old and leading to a wrongful-death lawsuit . There have also been several accusations of drivers sexually assaulting passengers. Some drivers have protested over their wages and working conditions. And this summer, The Verge reported that Uber was waging a campaign to recruit drivers from its rival, Lyft .

優步近來被各種指控纏身。去年除夕夜,一名駕駛在舊金山撞上一移民家庭,導致一名6歲兒童死亡,因此吃上過失致死官司。多項指控顯示駕駛曾性侵乘客。部分駕駛曾因薪水和工作條件而抗議。今年夏季時網路媒體Verge報導,優步積極展開行動,從對手Lyft挖角駕駛。

Mr. Kalanick later told Vanity Fair magazine that he also tried to crimp Lyft's fund-raising by calling venture capitalists and telling them that anyone who invested in Lyft could be blackballed from investing in Uber.

之後卡蘭尼克接受浮華世界雜誌訪問時表示,他也在阻撓Lyft募資,打電話給創投資本家說,任何人投資Lyft就可能成為優步的拒絕往來戶,不讓他投資優步。

Some passengers have worried whether the company protects riders' privacy — whether an employee can track where you went, and with whom. Uber says it has a policy forbidding employees and drivers from checking into riders' habits.

一些乘客對於這家公司能否善盡保護乘客個資之責不無疑慮:員工可追蹤乘客和誰去了哪裡。優步表示,有條款禁止員工和駕駛探查乘客的搭車習慣。

Still, the new revelations could increase that fear. The idea that a senior executive thought it would be fine to reveal a plan for spying makes you wonder if anything is considered off-limits at Uber — and that may be the sort of worry that apologetic tweets can't fix.

新的傳聞使這分恐懼加深。某一高階主管竟然認為對外透露調查記者的計畫無何不可,令人懷疑優步是否有任何覺得不能做的事,而這樣的憂慮只怕不是道歉推文就能消除的。

"Uber today is at the stage where Facebook was several years ago — they're growing ridiculously fast, and we're all wondering whether this will be the moment that they see they need to make a change," said Mark Rogowsky, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who has followed the battle between Lyft and Uber.

矽谷企業家羅戈斯基一直在觀察Lyft和優步間的競爭,他說:「優步現正處於臉書數年前的狀態--成長快得離譜,我們都想知道是不是到了他們發覺需要改變的時刻。」

He added, "We just don't know yet."

他補充道:「但我們真還不知道。」

 
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